If you are looking at the market figures, it seems that we are at a tipping point in the memory market. The big memory manufacturers are focusing on the development of High Bandwidth Memory which is a novel technology that integrates DRAM directly onto GPUs or CPUs – a completely different approach compared to traditional memory architectures. And this cannot be replicated or copied by any of the smaller memory manufacturers any time soon.
The efforts to move to scale this new, lucrative memory technology are far higher than with previous DRAM developments. This requires more focus which automatically results in less attention to older memory technologies. As we see it, the big manufacturers are going all in on HBM. Not surprisingly, as HBM will account for 5% of DRAM bit shipments but a staggering 20% of revenue in 2024, according to TrendForce.
The trend is similar in Flash memory, where QLC NAND for high-capacity SSDs will see 20% of NAND bit shipments in 2024 driven by AI servers.
This means that discontinuations of older DRAM generations like DDR3 and DDR4 are coming from the big three memory manufacturers. Flash memory technologies are also likely to see reduced investment over time as the industry focuses on next-generation memory solutions.
In essence, the gap between cutting-edge memory and established DRAM and flash memory solutions is widening and the alternatives are narrowing.
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